War · Sunday, October 11
Deterrence does not stock a transformer
A credible response to an attack and a spare on a pad are different kinds of security. A country can have one and lack the other.
by: Andrew, Co-Founder at Blackout Briefing

Strategy documents talk about denying an adversary the benefit of a blackout, by punishment or by resilience. Punishment is a defense ministry’s language. Resilience is a procurement schedule for machines that take a year to build.
Punishment assumes the other side will care more about the cost than about the blackout. Resilience assumes the attempt may come anyway, and asks what machine is on the pad when it does. A country can be fluent in the first and empty in the second. Both will be introduced, in public, as security.
The machines in the second category are not stocked like wire. Equipment that takes a year to build cannot be called into existence by a statement on the night it fails. That lead time is the resilience problem. Speeches tend to step over it on the way to the threat.
Executive Order 13865 is the rare document that says both: prevent adversarial events, and also protect and recover. Years on, the public record of civilian hardware is still thinner than the public record of speeches.
The order is unusual because it says prevention and recovery in the same document. The public record since is less unusual. Speeches accumulated. The list of civilian hardware a reader can actually point to stayed thinner. This paper will keep setting the speeches next to the hardware and reading the shorter list.
A new capability can be real and still leave the spare where it was. A credible response and a unit on a pad are bought by different offices, on different clocks. One is not a receipt for the other. Security is the word both offices use. It is not a shared inventory.
When you read a War headline about a new capability, ask the Grid question. What physical unit, in which yard, is different because of it?
Sources
- Congress Sounds Alarm Over EMP ‘Blackout Warfare’ Threat From China, Russia — Worthy Christian News · the article this brief was written from
- Executive Order 13865 — Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses — The American Presidency Project
- Electromagnetic Pulse and Geomagnetic Disturbance — Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
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