War · Monday, October 19
Ukraine is the live case of a war fought against the power system
Missiles and drones have been aimed at generation and transmission since 2022. The outages are the point, not a side effect.
by: Andrew, Co-Founder at Blackout Briefing

Since the full-scale invasion, Russia has treated Ukraine’s power plants, substations, and heating system as targets. The International Energy Agency has described the result in plain numbers: large shares of dispatchable generation occupied, damaged, or destroyed, and civilians living with scheduled and unscheduled cuts to electricity, heat, and water.
Dispatchable generation is the part of the fleet operators can order to run, as distinct from whatever the weather is offering that hour. When a large share of it is occupied, damaged, or destroyed, the system loses the ability to cover demand on command. Scheduled cuts are a grid choosing who goes dark on purpose rather than collapsing without a plan. Unscheduled cuts are the hours that plan does not catch.
Heat and water are in the same description because they follow the power system and can be struck themselves. Pumps and controls stop when the electricity does. A city can have a line still up and still be cold, or still have some generation and watch water pressure fail. The campaign has been against that stack, not against a single kind of machine.
That is the fact pattern Blackout Briefing means by a War desk. Not a hypothetical pulse. A conventional campaign against the machines that keep a country lit, repeated often enough that repair crews and air defense became part of the energy system.
Repair as part of the energy system means the work does not wait for a peaceful season. Crews and parts are in the same campaign as the plants. Air defense sits in that system because a threat that is stopped does not join the repair queue, and a threat that arrives does.
The lesson for anyone who still files “the grid” under weather is uncomfortable. A modern state can be made cold and dark without a nuclear detonation, if the attacker is willing to keep shooting at transformers.
Weather will still drop lines, in that war and in every other place. The desk exists so a blackout is not forced through that single file. When the outage is the objective, the questions are what was hit, what can be put back before the next strike, and what people are being asked to live without meanwhile. Those are reporting questions.
Sources
- Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter — International Energy Agency · the article this brief was written from
- Electromagnetic Pulse and Geomagnetic Disturbance — Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
- Empowering Ukraine Through a Decentralised Electricity System — International Energy Agency
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