Monday, October 19, 2026

CME · Wednesday, October 7

Insurance does not currently price a year-long grid failure

Homeowners policies assume adjusters, supply chains, and a functioning payments system. A Carrington-scale event breaks the assumptions.

by: Andrew, Co-Founder at Blackout Briefing

A typical home policy pays for spoiled food after a short named outage and for specific property damage. It does not make you whole for a region that cannot pump fuel for months. Insurers have studied the solar-storm scenario. They have not turned it into a product most households can buy, because the loss is correlated: everyone claims at once.

Correlation is what breaks the ordinary picture of a claim. A fire on one block can be paid because the other policies stayed quiet. A storm that hits a whole interconnection moves the losses together. The premium that would have to be collected ahead of time, and the capital that would have to be sitting there, are why this is not a line on the form next to wind and theft.

A claim is also a set of assumptions about the world after the loss. An adjuster has to reach the house. Parts have to exist. A payment has to clear. Those are ordinary services that ride on power, communications, and fuel. A long regional grid failure is a failure of machinery the contract treats as background, not simply a larger spoiled-food claim.

That is an argument for public investment in prevention, not for a personal insurance hack. The risk is systematic. Systematic risks get mitigated by engineering and by fiscal backstops, or they get absorbed as misery.

Engineering is the specification, the spare, the tree crew, the drill. A fiscal backstop is a public decision, made before the event, about how a correlated loss gets carried so it is not carried only by whoever happens to be in the dark. Neither one appears because a household asked an agent for a rider the company does not sell.

If a carrier does offer something narrow — food spoilage, a warranty on a generator — read it as that narrow thing. Do not let the paper migrate, in your head, into coverage for a region that cannot move fuel. Feeling insured is not the same object as a policy that pays.

Do not let the absence of a policy line item convince you the event is impossible. Uninsurable and impossible are different words. What remains at home is the work that does not need an adjuster: water, a way to treat more, the shutoff, the meetup, the radio.

Sources

  1. Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid — Lloyd’s · the article this brief was written from
  2. NOAA Space Weather Scales — NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
  3. Space Weather: Policy and U.S. Government Roles (CRS R46049) — Congressional Research Service

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